MediWound Ltd Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.43 Intrinsic Value $16.72median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $13.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $175.6M Enterprise Value $170.8M Shares Outstanding 11.4M diluted Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MediWound Ltd. represents a compelling biotechnology growth story centered on its proprietary enzymatic debridement platform. The company's FDA-approved biologic, NexoBrid, is gaining commercial traction in the burn care market, heavily supported by a massive 10-year BARDA contract valued at up to $197 million. Meanwhile, its late-stage candidate, EscharEx, targets the multi-billion-dollar chronic wound care market, offering a faster, non-surgical alternative to legacy treatments like Santyl. Despite near-term revenue volatility caused by geopolitical conflicts and shipment delays, management's reaffirmation of its multi-year growth guidance highlights a clear path to commercial scale and long-term profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$29.83 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.0015% Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt manufacturing and shipments, while patient recruitment for the EscharEx Phase III VALUE study faces further delays. Slower-than-expected BARDA procurement pushes revenues to the lower end of guidance, increasing cash burn and forcing dilutive capital raises. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.1760% MediWound successfully executes on its reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $24M to $26M, driven by second-half government procurement and development services. EscharEx clinical trials progress steadily toward a commercial launch in 2028, and NexoBrid utilization increases steadily via Vericel, supporting a gradual valuation re-rating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.0025% NexoBrid commercialization accelerates globally under the new BARDA contract, while EscharEx completes its Phase III VALUE study ahead of schedule, demonstrating superior efficacy and rapid debridement. This triggers early licensing milestones and positions MediWound to capture a significant share of the $2.5 billion chronic wound care market, driving rapid revenue growth and early profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |