Medifast Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPersonal Care Products Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $11.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $127.8M Enterprise Value $55.9M Shares Outstanding 11M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Sep 2023 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Medifast is undergoing a critical strategic pivot from a traditional direct-selling meal-replacement model to a medically integrated metabolic health platform. The rapid rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications has severely disrupted its core business, leading to a 44.9% year-over-year decline in active earning coaches to 14,000 in Q1 2026. However, early signs of stabilization are emerging, highlighted by a 19.2% year-over-year increase in coach productivity (revenue per active earning coach of $5,432) and the company's first sequential revenue growth in three years. Backed by a debt-free balance sheet with $168.9 million in cash and investments, and guided by newly appointed CEO Nicholas Johnson, Medifast has the financial runway to execute its transformation. Activist involvement from Steamboat Capital Partners further ensures disciplined capital allocation. While the long-term potential of its 'Metabolic Synchronization' science and LifeMD telehealth partnership is promising, near-term profitability remains under pressure, making a Hold recommendation appropriate until sustainable top-line growth is re-established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$12.00 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Active earning coach counts continue to decline faster than productivity can offset, driven by relentless GLP-1 adoption and direct-selling channel fatigue. The transition to metabolic health fails to attract new demographics, and operating losses widen beyond the guided $1.55 to $2.75 loss per share for FY2026, eroding the cash balance. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully stabilizes its coach network in late 2026 as the launch of next-generation metabolic health products drives customer acquisition. Coach productivity remains strong, offsetting lower coach counts. Revenue for FY2026 meets the guided range of $270 million to $300 million, and the company approaches operational break-even by late 2026 or early 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario The successful launch of the Trilivy metabolic health system (replacing OPTAVIA) in August 2026, combined with the LifeMD partnership, allows Medifast to pivot from traditional weight loss to a comprehensive metabolic health company. This repositioning targets the massive market of consumers seeking alternatives or complements to GLP-1 medications, leveraging its debt-free balance sheet ($168.9M in cash/investments) and high gross margins (70%) to drive a return to profitability starting in Q4 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |