Medallion Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryConsumer Finance Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $6.31median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $11.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $273.7M Enterprise Value $388.7M Shares Outstanding 24.5M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) has successfully transitioned its core business away from legacy taxi medallion lending toward high-yielding consumer finance segments, specifically recreation and home improvement lending. While the company achieved record net interest income and book value per share in FY2025, Q1 2026 results highlighted near-term headwinds. Profitability fell sharply due to the normalization of one-time equity investment gains and elevated credit loss provisioning required to support its targeted 12% to 16% consumer loan growth. Although the core lending franchise remains resilient with stable net interest margins and robust capital ratios at Medallion Bank, the stock is likely to remain range-bound until credit costs stabilize and earnings power recovers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.50 Mean target$11.00 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.5020% Macroeconomic deterioration leads to a spike in consumer delinquencies, forcing higher-than-expected credit provisions. Underwriting margins compress under persistent high funding costs, and fintech partner volumes slow down. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.0055% Matches the consensus meanThe company achieves moderate consumer loan growth while maintaining stable net interest margins. Credit provisions remain elevated but manageable, and earnings gradually recover in late 2026 and 2027 as the loan book seasons. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0025% Declining net charge-offs, rapid scaling of the high-yield fintech strategic partnership program, and successful execution of strategic alternatives for Medallion Bank (such as an IPO or sale) unlock significant shareholder value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |