Mckesson Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mckesson Corp

MCKNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Distributors

Beta (adjusted)0.54

Intrinsic Value $887.60median of 5 methods · middle span $812-$3,025based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $898.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $104.8B

Enterprise Value $109.4B

Shares Outstanding 117.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

McKesson entered fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: first-quarter revenue increased 8%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 20%, and management raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $44.20-$45.00. Oncology, multispecialty and biopharma services remain strategic growth priorities, reinforced by the pending approximately $2.25 billion Precision Medicine Group acquisition. Capital returns also remain substantial, including $2.6 billion returned in the first quarter and a 15% quarterly-dividend increase.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$905.00

Mean target$991.40

High · most bullish analyst$1,080.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$905.0017%

Medical-Surgical profitability remains weak, acquisition or integration demands dilute management focus, or core operating momentum slows enough to force the fiscal 2027 adjusted diluted EPS guidance floor below $44.20. These developments would weaken confidence in the portfolio transition and long-term earnings-growth framework.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$991.4058%

Matches the consensus mean

McKesson delivers fiscal 2027 adjusted diluted EPS within the raised $44.20-$45.00 range, supported by core distribution, oncology and multispecialty, prescription-technology execution and disciplined capital returns. Portfolio transactions proceed without materially disrupting operations.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,080.0025%

McKesson exceeds the $45.00 upper end of fiscal 2027 adjusted diluted EPS guidance as core distribution remains resilient, oncology and multispecialty momentum continues, biopharma services scale, and Precision Medicine Group strengthens clinical-research and commercialization capabilities without material integration disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-quarter fiscal 2027 adjusted diluted EPS increased 20%, and management raised full-year guidance to $44.20-$45.00, implying 13%-15% growth.
The approximately $2.25 billion Precision Medicine Group agreement expands McKesson's oncology and multispecialty strategy into complementary clinical-research and biopharma-commercialization services.
McKesson returned $2.6 billion to shareholders during the first quarter and raised its quarterly dividend by 15% to $0.94 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Medical-Surgical Solutions adjusted operating profit declined 20% in the first quarter, highlighting execution and mix pressure within a business undergoing a strategic ownership transition.
The Precision Medicine Group acquisition remains subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory clearances, creating closing and subsequent integration risk.
The Apollo transaction leaves McKesson with operating control and majority ownership of Medical-Surgical Solutions, so operational performance and consolidation complexity remain relevant despite the minority investment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.