McGraw Hill Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryEducation & Training Services Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $12.03median of 5 methods · middle span $6-$12based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $13.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.5B Enterprise Value $4.9B Shares Outstanding 208.4M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary McGraw Hill, Inc. (NYSE: MH) has successfully transitioned into a digital-first education solutions provider, with digital offerings representing 68% of total revenue and re-occurring revenue making up over 73% of its business in fiscal year 2026. The company's recent return to profitability (GAAP net income of $35.3 million) and aggressive debt reduction (gross debt reduced by $645.6 million) are highly positive developments. However, the company remains heavily leveraged with $2.63 billion in outstanding debt and faces intense competition from generative AI and low-cost open educational resources (OER). Given these structural headwinds and the cyclical nature of K-12 procurement, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors the execution of its AI-driven growth strategy and further deleveraging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$17.75 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Generative AI alternatives and free open-access educational resources aggressively displace traditional homework platforms and textbooks, leading to market share losses in Higher Education. Cyclical K-12 headwinds persist, and high debt service costs pressure free cash flow, stalling the deleveraging process. Base CaseCentral scenario The company achieves its fiscal year 2027 guidance, with revenue reaching $2.115B–$2.175B and Adjusted EBITDA expanding to $750M–$790M. Deleveraging continues steadily toward the 2.0x–2.5x net leverage target, supported by strong cash generation from Higher Education and Global Professional segments. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |