McCormick & Co Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods Beta (adjusted)0.75 Intrinsic Value $78.52median of 6 methods · middle span $72-$92based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $44.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 78% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+78%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.9B Enterprise Value $15.1B Shares Outstanding 269.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary McCormick's underlying execution improved through the second quarter of fiscal 2026: organic sales grew 1.7%, adjusted operating income rose 30.1%, and adjusted gross margin reached 40.2%. Management retained fiscal-year guidance for 1% to 3% organic growth, 16% to 20% adjusted operating-income growth, and adjusted EPS of $3.05 to $3.13. The proposed Unilever Foods combination offers substantial scale, geographic reach, and $600 million of targeted annual run-rate cost synergies, but it also introduces approval, financing, integration, dilution, and leverage risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$52.00 Mean target$60.62 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $52.0025% Consumer volume pressure persists, inflation and geopolitical freight costs erode underlying margin progress, or fiscal 2026 organic growth and adjusted operating-income growth fall below guidance. Regulatory conditions, financing costs, separation complexity, or integration disruption delay or impair the Unilever Foods transaction, while closing leverage above the announced ceiling reduces strategic flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $60.6255% Matches the consensus meanFiscal 2026 results remain broadly within management's reaffirmed ranges, with acquisition-led reported growth and modest positive organic growth offset by continued softness in Consumer volume and mix. The Unilever Foods transaction advances toward a mid-2027 close, but financing and integration uncertainty limit conviction until detailed filings, approvals, and synergy milestones become available. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.0020% Organic growth reaches the upper half of fiscal 2026 guidance, Consumer volumes recover, and Flavor Solutions retains its improved momentum. The Unilever Foods transaction closes by mid-2027 without onerous remedies, and integration remains credible against the announced $600 million year-three cost-synergy target, 23% to 25% year-three operating-margin objective, and planned reduction of net leverage to 3.0 times within two years after closing. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |