MBIA Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

MBIA Inc

MBINYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance

Beta (adjusted)1.22

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $4.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $218.9M

Shares Outstanding 50.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Dec 2023

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MBIA Inc. (MBI) is a legacy monoline financial guarantee insurer operating primarily in runoff mode. The company's primary value driver is its U.S. public finance subsidiary, National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, which holds substantial statutory capital and claims-paying resources. However, MBIA's overall valuation remains heavily constrained by its legacy exposures, most notably its remaining $554 million gross par exposure to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) and ongoing legal complexities. While the company has successfully reduced its risk profile through asset sales (such as selling PREPA-related bankruptcy claims in 2025), it continues to report GAAP net losses ($40 million in Q1 2026) and carries negative consolidated shareholders' equity. Consequently, the stock is best viewed as a specialized runoff play with limited near-term growth catalysts, justifying a Hold recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$7.25

High · most bullish analyst$7.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5.0020%

The bear case is triggered by adverse legal rulings in the PREPA Title III proceeding that severely impair National's recovery prospects, forcing significant additional loss reserve provisions. Simultaneously, a failure to monetize Zohar-related assets or a sharp drop in risk-free interest rates could worsen MBIA Corp.'s capital position, potentially leading to regulatory intervention or restricting the holding company's access to subsidiary dividends.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$7.2550%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes a slow, protracted resolution of the PREPA bankruptcy with moderate recoveries in line with current reserve levels. National's insured portfolio will continue its steady organic runoff, gradually reducing leverage. MBIA Inc. will maintain its holding company liquidity ($353 million as of Q1 2026) to service its remaining obligations, but will refrain from aggressive capital returns until legal uncertainties are fully resolved. Profitability will remain elusive, and the stock will trade near its historical ranges.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$7.5030%

The bull case relies on a swift and highly favorable resolution of the PREPA bankruptcy, allowing National to release substantial loss reserves and distribute a massive special dividend to the holding company. This would enable aggressive share repurchases under the remaining $71 million authorization or make the company an attractive acquisition target for active peers like Assured Guaranty (AGO) or Ambac Financial (AMBC), both of whom have reportedly shown interest in acquiring MBIA.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong capital position at National Public Finance Guarantee, with $950 million in statutory capital and $1.4 billion in claims-paying resources as of Q1 2026.
Substantial holding company liquidity of $353 million provides a buffer to service corporate debt and obligations.
Potential upside from a final resolution of the PREPA bankruptcy and subsequent capital distribution options.
Strategic optionality as a consolidation target in a highly concentrated monoline insurance industry.

Key Investment Risks

Significant concentration of risk in Puerto Rico (PREPA) exposure, with $554 million of scheduled gross debt service outstanding.
Persistent GAAP net losses ($40 million in Q1 2026) and negative consolidated book value per share (-$44.82 as of March 31, 2026).
Runoff nature of the business model limits top-line revenue growth and long-term franchise expansion.
High sensitivity of legacy RMBS and structured finance portfolios to interest rate fluctuations and macroeconomic cycles.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A court ruling that completely invalidates National's PREPA liens, resulting in near-zero recovery on outstanding claims.
Regulatory restrictions imposed by the New York State Department of Financial Services on dividend payments from National to the holding company.
An outright acquisition of MBIA Inc. by a competitor at a significant premium.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.