Maze Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Maze Therapeutics Inc

MAZENASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.78

Intrinsic Value $13.05median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $26.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-51%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.5B

Enterprise Value $1.3B

Shares Outstanding 63.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Maze Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company leveraging its proprietary Compass platform to translate human genetic insights into small molecule precision medicines. The company has established clinical proof-of-concept with its lead candidate, MZE829, in APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD), and is poised to advance its second candidate, MZE782, into Phase 2 trials for phenylketonuria (PKU) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Backed by a robust cash runway extending into 2029 following successful capital raises, and validated by a high-value partnership with Shionogi for its Pompe disease asset (MZE001), Maze represents a compelling investment opportunity in the precision medicine space.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$46.00

Mean target$62.55

High · most bullish analyst$110.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Clinical delays or safety concerns emerge in the MZE829 pivotal trial or MZE782 Phase 2 trials, extending development timelines and accelerating cash burn. Regulatory hurdles or unfavorable feedback delay trial initiations, putting pressure on the 2029 cash runway.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Maze successfully initiates its pivotal trial for MZE829 in AMKD by H1 2027 and begins Phase 2 trials for MZE782 in PKU and CKD in 2026. The cash runway remains secure into 2029, supported by the $150 million registered offering completed in April 2026 and potential milestone payments from Shionogi.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Clinical proof-of-concept achieved for lead asset MZE829 in broad APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD).
Strong cash position of over $360 million (as of Q1 2026) plus $150 million from the April 2026 offering, securing operations into 2029.
Proprietary Compass platform provides a continuous engine for discovering genetically validated, first- or best-in-class small molecule targets.
Validation and non-dilutive funding from the Shionogi partnership for MZE001, including a $20 million milestone achieved in early 2026.

Key Investment Risks

High clinical development risk inherent to early-stage biopharmaceutical pipelines.
Intense competition in the PKU and CKD spaces from established players and other clinical-stage biotechs.
Dependence on regulatory approvals and positive feedback to transition candidates into pivotal trials.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of MZE829 to meet primary endpoints in its planned pivotal trial.
Safety or tolerability issues arising in the Phase 2 trials of MZE782.
Termination or significant delay of the MZE001 program by partner Shionogi.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.