Mayfair Gold Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mayfair Gold Corp

MFGTSX Venture Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryGold

Beta (adjusted)0.60

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $2.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $183.3M

Enterprise Value $183.2M

Shares Outstanding 67.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Mayfair Gold Corp. represents a highly attractive pre-production gold development opportunity in the world-class Timmins Gold District of Ontario, Canada. The company's flagship 100%-owned Fenn-Gib Gold Project hosts a substantial 4.3 million ounce indicated mineral resource. In January 2026, Mayfair released a robust Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) outlining a disciplined, phased development strategy that targets a near-surface, higher-grade 1.0 million ounce probable mineral reserve. This approach significantly reduces execution risk and upfront capital requirements (estimated at C$450 million) while delivering exceptional economics, including an after-tax NPV of C$652 million and a 24% IRR at a base case gold price of US$3,100/oz. Recent grade control drilling has further de-risked the deposit, validating the reserve model and highlighting potential opportunities to process higher-grade ore earlier in the mining sequence to accelerate cash flows.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.6520%

Permitting delays or inflationary pressures push back the construction timeline beyond 2028 and increase initial capital expenditures above the estimated C$450 million. A significant correction in gold prices below the US$3,100/oz base case level compresses project margins and complicates project financing discussions, leading to dilution or delayed development.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$5.2450%

The project is successfully permitted under the Ontario provincial class environmental assessment process, avoiding federal impact assessment delays. Construction begins on schedule in 2028 with initial production in 2030. Base case economics are realized at a US$3,100/oz gold price, yielding a C$652 million after-tax NPV, a 24% IRR, and a 2.7-year payback period. Project financing is secured on favorable terms, supported by strong institutional backing and validated early-year cash flows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$7.1530%

Gold prices remain elevated or continue to rise toward spot levels (US$4,450/oz), which dramatically enhances project economics. Under spot gold assumptions, the Fenn-Gib after-tax NPV(5%) surges to C$1.37 billion with a 38% IRR and a payback period of just 1.7 years. Additionally, regional exploration across the newly expanded land package (including the recently acquired Guibord, Marriott, and Holloway properties) successfully adds high-grade ounces, extending the mine life beyond the initial 14.3 years.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Robust project economics with a C$652M after-tax NPV and 24% IRR at a US$3,100/oz gold price, rising to C$1.37B NPV and 38% IRR at spot prices.
Disciplined development strategy targeting a high-grade starter zone (1.0M oz probable reserve) to minimize upfront capital (C$450M) and accelerate payback (2.7 years).
Located in a premier, low-risk mining jurisdiction (Timmins Gold District, Ontario) with excellent infrastructure access, including Highway 101 running directly through the project.
Strong management team led by CEO Drew Anwyll and CFO Kevin Annett, both possessing extensive experience in large-scale Canadian gold development and operations.
Significant exploration upside with over 75% of the expanded ~4,800-hectare land package remaining unexplored.

Key Investment Risks

Permitting risk associated with provincial environmental approvals and the transition to a formal Community Benefit Agreement with the Apitipi Anicinapek Nation.
Financing risk as a pre-production development-stage company requiring C$450 million in initial capital to reach commercial production.
Commodity price sensitivity, as project economics are highly dependent on prevailing gold prices and exchange rates.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Significant delays in securing provincial environmental permits or failure to reach a Community Benefit Agreement with local Indigenous communities.
A sustained drop in gold prices below US$2,500/oz, which would severely impact the project's economic viability and financing feasibility.
Material capital cost overruns during the detailed engineering or early construction phases that exceed the 26% contingency buffer.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.