Maximus Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Business Services Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $91.79median of 6 methods · middle span $81-$229based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $53.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 71% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+71%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $4.4B Shares Outstanding 54.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Maximus is successfully navigating top-line headwinds through operational efficiency and technology-driven margin expansion, particularly via AI-enabled automation in its U.S. Federal Services segment. While the company has raised its full-year FY2026 earnings guidance for two consecutive quarters, its revenue growth remains unproven due to the roll-off of elevated natural disaster support and temporary clinical volume surges. Furthermore, elevated Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) at 78 days due to collection delays with a major federal customer presents a near-term cash flow drag. At a low valuation multiple, the stock reflects market skepticism regarding revenue quality and contract backlog replacement, making it a solid Hold candidate while awaiting normalization of collections and new contract wins. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$92.50 High · most bullish analyst$110.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Revenue contraction accelerates beyond expectations as the company fails to replace expiring high-volume clinical and disaster support contracts. Federal collection delays persist, keeping DSO elevated above 75 days and forcing a downward revision to free cash flow guidance. Margin expansion stalls as wage inflation and implementation costs offset technology-driven efficiency gains. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully achieves its raised FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $8.25 to $8.55 and stabilizes its adjusted EBITDA margin at approximately 14.2%. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) normalizes below 70 days by fiscal year-end, restoring free cash flow to the guided range of $450 million to $500 million. Revenue remains flat to slightly down within the guided range of $5.2 billion to $5.35 billion as new awards gradually replace expiring temporary contracts. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |