Maui Land & Pineapple Co Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Management & Development Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $15.18median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $15.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $313.4M Enterprise Value $314.3M Shares Outstanding 19.8M diluted Next Earnings Date14 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Mar 2000 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Maui Land & Pineapple Co Inc (MLP) is undergoing a significant operational transition under CEO Race Randle. The company is shifting from legacy agricultural liabilities toward active land development, commercial leasing, and high-value agribusiness ventures like its blue agave project. The recently signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Maui County to sell its West Maui water infrastructure (Honokōhau Ditch System) represents a historic opportunity to unlock non-dilutive capital and eliminate regulatory and maintenance burdens. However, near-term profitability remains pressured by the suspension of the Honokeana Homes project and elevated development costs, justifying a Hold rating until asset sales close and development revenues materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The Maui County Council rejects or significantly delays the water system acquisition, leaving MLP with ongoing maintenance liabilities and legal disputes. Prolonged drought conditions in West Maui restrict new real estate entitlements and slow agave crop maturation. Base CaseCentral scenario The sale of the Honokōhau Ditch System to Maui County is finalized for a price near the budgeted $30 million, providing substantial liquidity. Commercial real estate occupancy stabilizes above 93% as West Maui continues its post-wildfire recovery. Agave cultivation scales toward the 325-acre target, positioning the company for future high-margin vertical integration. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Maui Land & Pineapple centers on its successful transition to a high-margin recurring revenue model, driven by commercial real estate leasing (reaching 93% occupancy in Q1 2026) and land leasing. Additionally, the monetization of its vast 22,000-acre land portfolio through targeted non-strategic land sales provides non-dilutive capital to fund development projects and its new vertically integrated Blue Weber agave agribusiness venture. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |