Matson Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMarine Shipping Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $153.55median of 6 methods · middle span $106-$227based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $225.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.7B Enterprise Value $7B Shares Outstanding 29.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Matson, Inc. (MATX) remains a highly disciplined, niche market leader protected by the regulatory barriers of the Jones Act in its domestic trade lanes (Hawaii, Alaska, Guam). Its premium, expedited China-to-California (CLX) service continues to command pricing power and drive outsized returns during supply chain disruptions. However, after a significant stock rally, the market has fully priced in Matson's business quality, reducing upside asymmetry. While management's raised 2026 operating income guidance provides solid forward visibility, cyclical transpacific trade risks, elevated fuel costs, and capital-intensive fleet renewal programs (such as the $1 billion LNG-powered Aloha Class program) warrant a balanced Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$255.00 Mean target$261.67 High · most bullish analyst$270.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $255.0015% A sharp slowdown in U.S. consumer demand or escalating trade tariffs severely depress transpacific container volumes. Simultaneously, prolonged high fuel costs and execution delays or cost overruns in the $1 billion fleet renewal program squeeze free cash flow and compress valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $261.6760% Matches the consensus meanMatson maintains stable volumes in domestic non-contiguous lanes and steady demand in its China service. Full-year 2026 operating income modestly exceeds 2025 levels, supported by effective cost management, share repurchases, and a normalized tax rate of approximately 21%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $270.0025% Accelerated transpacific trade disruptions or port congestion drive shippers to pay premium rates for Matson's expedited CLX service, leading to significant earnings beats. Rapid volume growth in Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam) and faster-than-expected fuel cost recovery further expand operating margins. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |