Match Group Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Media & Services Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $62.42median of 5 methods · middle span $43-$73based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $40.13Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 56% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+56%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.4B Enterprise Value $12.3B Shares Outstanding 244.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Next ex-dividend5 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Match Group's operating evidence is improving, but the turnaround is not yet complete. Tinder's Q2 2026 DAU decline narrowed to 4%, its best result in ten quarters, while recommendation and product changes supported further improvement in July. Hinge remains the clearest growth asset, with revenue up 22% and MAU up 13%, and management continues to expect $1 billion of Hinge revenue in 2027. These positives are balanced by a 6% decline in company payers and a 1% decline in quarterly revenue. The 39% Q2 Adjusted EBITDA margin demonstrates stronger execution, but Q3 guidance calls for revenue to decline 2% to 3% year over year. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$41.81 High · most bullish analyst$51.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.0023% Tinder engagement improvements fail to translate into payer stabilization, company payers continue declining at or beyond the Q2 rate, Hinge growth decelerates below the level consistent with its 2027 objective, and revenue pressure constrains operating leverage. Under that combination, the turnaround would warrant a substantial discount to the August 31 reference price. Base CaseCentral scenario $41.8156% Matches the consensus meanTinder improves gradually but takes several more quarters to reach durable user growth, Hinge remains the principal growth engine, payer contraction moderates, and margins remain resilient. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0021% Tinder's improved recommendations, retention, safety features, rebrand, and in-person Events return DAU and MAU to growth; Hinge sustains approximately 20% or better growth and remains on course for $1 billion of 2027 revenue; and consolidated margins remain near the high-30% range. Successful execution would support a materially higher valuation than the August 31 reference price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |