Matador Resources Co Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $86.91median of 6 methods · middle span $51-$137based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $52.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 64% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+64%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.6B Enterprise Value $10.7B Shares Outstanding 123.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Matador Resources Co. represents a high-quality, operationally efficient independent E&P operator with a premier footprint in the Delaware Basin. The company's unique integrated model—combining upstream production with valuable midstream assets through San Mateo and wholly-owned infrastructure—provides superior flow assurance and cost advantages. Matador's strong start to 2026, characterized by production outperformance and rapid debt paydown (reducing over $350 million on its RBL facility since year-end), positions it to generate substantial free cash flow of $1.1 to $1.2 billion for the full year. Despite short-term regional natural gas pricing headwinds at the Waha hub, Matador's proactive marketing strategies and capital discipline support a compelling risk-reward profile with significant valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$68.42 High · most bullish analyst$93.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is driven by a severe macroeconomic downturn leading to a collapse in crude oil prices below $60/bbl, combined with prolonged negative natural gas pricing at the Waha hub. Operational bottlenecks, cost inflation in lease operating expenses, or integration challenges with recently acquired assets could compress margins and restrict free cash flow generation, limiting debt reduction and dividend growth. Base CaseCentral scenario Under the base case, Matador successfully executes its 2026 development plan, achieving its full-year production guidance of 209,500 to 215,000 BOE per day. Capital expenditures remain disciplined and in line with guidance, while drilling and completion costs per lateral foot decline to the targeted $785 to $805 range. The company fully repays its RBL facility and continues to grow its quarterly dividend. Valuation multiples re-rate slightly closer to historical medians as debt concerns ease. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |