Mastec Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mastec Inc

MTZNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Beta (adjusted)1.55

Intrinsic Value $184.41median of 6 methods · middle span $164-$335based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $213.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.2B

Enterprise Value $19.4B

Shares Outstanding 78.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Aug 1982

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MasTec entered the second half of 2026 with record USD 21.4 billion 18-month backlog, broad-based second-quarter revenue growth and higher full-year guidance. The Superior Group acquisition strengthens MasTec's exposure to data-center and mission-critical electrical infrastructure, but it also introduces material integration and financing execution requirements.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$340.00

Mean target$422.00

High · most bullish analyst$518.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$340.0018%

Project timing or execution issues prevent full delivery of updated guidance, backlog falls below the prior year-end level, or Superior integration and financing costs dilute expected earnings benefits. These outcomes would weaken the evidence for sustained margin expansion and reduce confidence in backlog conversion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$422.0056%

Matches the consensus mean

MasTec broadly delivers its updated FY2026 guidance while integrating Superior and managing the acquisition-related financing burden. Record backlog supports demand visibility, but execution and integration requirements temper the otherwise strong operating outlook.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$518.0026%

Backlog converts on schedule, organic execution sustains the second-quarter margin improvement, and Superior expands MasTec's data-center and mission-critical opportunity set without material integration disruption. Under this outcome, MasTec meets or exceeds its updated USD 18.2 billion revenue, USD 1.6 billion adjusted EBITDA and USD 9.30 adjusted diluted EPS outlook.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 18-month backlog reached a record USD 21.4 billion, increasing USD 4.9 billion, or 30%, year over year and USD 1.1 billion sequentially.
Second-quarter revenue increased 23% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 100 basis points, indicating broad demand and stronger execution.
Updated FY2026 guidance calls for USD 18.2 billion of revenue, USD 1.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA and USD 9.30 of adjusted diluted EPS.
The Superior Group acquisition adds approximately 3,000 employees and expands MasTec's capabilities in data centers and other mission-critical electrical infrastructure.

Key Investment Risks

The approximately USD 1.65 billion Superior transaction creates integration risk and was funded partly through credit-facility and delayed-draw term-loan borrowings.
MasTec subsequently priced USD 650 million of 5.850% senior notes due 2036, creating a material fixed interest obligation even though proceeds support refinancing and general corporate purposes.
The investment case depends on delivering elevated FY2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance while converting a rapidly growing backlog.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.