Masco Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.19 Intrinsic Value $67.33median of 5 methods · middle span $67-$83based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $68.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.5B Enterprise Value $16B Shares Outstanding 201M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Masco combines credible long-term objectives with mixed near-term operating evidence. Management targets 3%-4% average annual organic sales growth, at least an 18% adjusted operating margin, and approximately 10% adjusted EPS compound annual growth through 2028. However, second-quarter 2026 net sales declined 3%, and the reported profit acceleration included approximately $95 million of net IEEPA tariff refunds. Management raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.40-$4.60, citing an anticipated full-year net refund benefit of approximately $85 million. Masco's investor-relations site displayed a $73.25 share price on retrieval. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$68.00 Mean target$80.65 High · most bullish analyst$96.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $68.0024% Sales contraction persists, tariff-refund benefits prove non-recurring or fall below expectations, and weak repair-and-remodel demand prevents Masco from reaching its organic-growth and margin objectives. The scenario price reference is Masco's investor-relations-displayed 52-week low. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.6557% Matches the consensus meanUnderlying demand remains subdued but stabilizes, Masco delivers 2026 adjusted EPS within its $4.40-$4.60 guidance range, and execution toward the 2028 targets remains credible without a rapid housing-cycle recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $96.0019% Masco restores organic sales growth, converts its brand and commercial investments into above-market gains, and delivers its 2028 objectives of 3%-4% average annual organic growth, at least an 18% adjusted operating margin, and approximately 10% adjusted EPS CAGR. The scenario price reference is Masco's investor-relations-displayed 52-week high. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |