Marvell Technology, Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.85 Intrinsic Value $159.03median of 6 methods · middle span $82-$284based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $268.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $240.9B Enterprise Value $242B Shares Outstanding 903.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date1 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Marvell offers leveraged exposure to AI data-center infrastructure through custom silicon, connectivity, switching, storage and optical interconnect. Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue reached a record $2.739 billion, up 37% year over year, while data-center revenue increased 46% and represented 79% of total revenue. Management guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $3.150 billion at the midpoint, reported exceptionally robust AI bookings, and raised its fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 revenue outlooks. The expanded Google custom-silicon relationship and Celestial AI optical platform add meaningful long-duration opportunities, but the investment case carries execution, customer-concentration, dilution and margin risks. At the August 28 intraday reference price of $216.38, the independently constructed $250 base case supports a Buy recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$126.00 Mean target$257.29 High · most bullish analyst$400.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $170.0020% AI program ramps are delayed, fiscal Q3 revenue falls below guidance, data-center growth decelerates sharply, or non-GAAP gross margin drops below management's range. Customer concentration, Google warrant dilution and slower-than-planned Celestial AI commercialization compound the downside. Base CaseCentral scenario $257.2955% Matches the consensus meanMarvell substantially delivers its fiscal Q3 revenue outlook, maintains strong data-center growth, and converts robust AI bookings into a rising custom-silicon and connectivity revenue stream. The Google partnership and Celestial AI contribute to long-term optionality, while near-term gross-margin pressure and dilution constrain multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $300.0025% AI infrastructure spending remains strong, Marvell's connectivity and custom businesses accelerate faster than current expectations, Google-linked programs broaden across the TPU ecosystem, and Celestial AI progresses toward its disclosed revenue objectives. Sustained data-center growth and improving operating leverage support a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |