Martin Marietta Materials Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Martin Marietta Materials Inc

MLMNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryConstruction Materials

Beta (adjusted)1.06

Intrinsic Value $702.18median of 6 methods · middle span $565-$1,173based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $479.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $34B

Enterprise Value $39.9B

Shares Outstanding 71M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Martin Marietta entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA, positive organic aggregates volume and pricing, and raised full-year revenue guidance. Those strengths are balanced by flat consolidated gross profit, lower reported continuing-operations earnings, acquisition-related purchase-accounting charges and substantial execution, financing and dilution risks surrounding the proposed Lhoist North America combination.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$440.00

Mean target$662.65

High · most bullish analyst$800.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$440.0025%

The bear case involves adjusted EBITDA below guidance, organic aggregates pricing or volume turning negative, delayed cash-flow improvements, or an adverse Lhoist North America outcome involving closing delays, expensive financing, dilution or weaker-than-expected synergies. Weather, interest-sensitive construction demand, energy, freight and raw-material costs could amplify downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$662.6557%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes performance within the stated 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges, continued infrastructure and heavy-nonresidential support, manageable integration costs and gradual conversion of identified efficiency opportunities into cash flow. Acquisition-related mix and accounting effects may restrain near-term reported profitability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$800.0018%

The bull case requires revenue and adjusted EBITDA near the upper ends of 2026 guidance, sustained positive organic volume and mix-adjusted pricing, timely realization of approximately USD 350 million of annualized cash-flow improvements, and completion of the Lhoist North America transaction without materially adverse financing or regulatory conditions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached a record USD 1.947 billion, up 21%, while adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations increased 13% to a record USD 638 million.
Organic aggregates shipments grew 2.3% and organic mix-adjusted average selling price grew 3.7%, supported by infrastructure and heavy-nonresidential demand.
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to USD 7.2-7.4 billion and reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance of USD 2.36-2.50 billion.
Management identified approximately USD 350 million of annualized cash-flow improvement opportunities from asset-base, network, inventory and sustaining-capital optimization.

Key Investment Risks

Despite strong revenue growth, second-quarter gross profit was approximately flat and continuing-operations diluted EPS declined 12%, reflecting purchase-accounting and other profitability pressures.
The proposed approximately USD 13.5 billion Lhoist North America combination introduces regulatory, financing, integration, leverage and share-dilution risks.
Aggregates results remain exposed to weather, public-infrastructure funding, interest-sensitive private construction, energy, freight and other input costs.
Headline aggregates average selling price declined 2% because of acquisition-related mix, illustrating the risk that portfolio changes can obscure or dilute organic pricing performance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.