Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance Brokers Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $191.19median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $171.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $82B Enterprise Value $99.8B Shares Outstanding 483M diluted Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Marsh reported solid second-quarter execution, including 5% underlying revenue growth and 9% adjusted EPS growth, and subsequently raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Product development in digital-infrastructure risk and continued agency acquisitions provide additional growth avenues. The counterweight is a soft commercial insurance market, with global rates down 6% and declining for eight consecutive quarters, plus execution requirements associated with acquisitions and the September 2026 unification of Mercer under the Marsh brand. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$180.00 Mean target$205.52 High · most bullish analyst$238.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $180.0020% Commercial insurance rate declines deepen, organic growth stalls, and acquisition or brand-integration demands constrain earnings progression. A dividend reduction would provide additional evidence that the operating thesis had weakened. Base CaseCentral scenario $205.5258% Matches the consensus meanDemand for Marsh's advisory capabilities supports continued positive underlying growth, while the higher dividend provides evidence of management and board confidence. Softer commercial insurance pricing and brand-integration work temper the upside, producing a balanced operating outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $238.0022% Underlying revenue remains near the recent mid-single-digit pace, adjusted EPS continues to grow faster than revenue, and new offerings such as Stratus plus agency acquisitions expand the addressable opportunity. Brand unification improves cross-selling without materially disrupting client relationships. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |