Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp

VACNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryResorts & Casinos

Beta (adjusted)1.15

Intrinsic Value $98.21median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $103.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $3.5B

Enterprise Value $6.3B

Shares Outstanding 31M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend27 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) is undergoing a strategic transformation under its newly appointed leadership team, focusing on profitability, cost discipline, and aggressive cash generation. While the company's Q1 2026 results highlighted near-term margin compression due to elevated marketing and sales expenses and a softer close rate in vacation ownership, its long-term outlook is supported by a highly resilient, affluent customer base and a strong recurring revenue mix (40% of Adjusted EBITDA). The company's ambitious target to generate $375 million to $425 million in Adjusted Free Cash Flow for FY 2026 represents a massive turnaround from 2025, but current valuation multiples suggest these positive catalysts are already largely priced in, warranting a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$52.00

Mean target$114.30

High · most bullish analyst$147.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

$114.30

Matches the consensus mean

The company achieves its FY 2026 guidance with contract sales of $1.815 billion to $1.885 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $755 million to $780 million. Free cash flow generation recovers strongly to around $400 million, supported by disciplined inventory management and planned asset sales.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong brand equity and exclusive long-term licensing agreements with Marriott International and Hyatt Hotels.
Highly resilient business model with 40% of Adjusted EBITDA derived from recurring management and exchange operations.
Significant free cash flow turnaround projected for FY 2026 ($375M-$425M) compared to $145M in FY 2025.
Clear capital allocation strategy focused on debt reduction and returning capital to shareholders via a stable dividend.

Key Investment Risks

High leverage profile with net debt to EBITDA standing at approximately 9.1x.
Cyclical sensitivity of the timeshare and vacation ownership industry to macroeconomic downturns.
Elevated sales and marketing expenses compressing near-term development profit margins.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to meet the lower bound of FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($755 million).
A material increase in contract cancellation rates or default rates on vacation ownership notes receivable.
Delays or shortfalls in the execution of the $200 million to $250 million non-core asset disposition program.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.