Markel Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $1,045.87median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $1,726.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $21.4B Enterprise Value $22.3B Shares Outstanding 12.5M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Markel Insurance entered the second half of 2026 with materially better underwriting profitability: its first-half adjusted operating income increased 35%, its combined ratio was 93%, and adjusted underwriting gross premium volume increased 10%. These gains were offset by a 12% decline in consolidated first-half adjusted operating income, including losses in the Financial segment and weaker Industrial earnings. The long-term capital-compounding record and ongoing repurchases remain constructive. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1,671.00 Mean target$1,956.33 High · most bullish analyst$2,107.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1,671.0018% Catastrophe, geopolitical or reserve developments weaken underwriting, while Industrial margin pressure and Financial segment losses persist. Consolidated adjusted operating income declines despite continued capital deployment, reducing confidence that recent insurance improvement will translate into durable group-level compounding. Base CaseCentral scenario $1,956.3358% Matches the consensus meanMarkel Insurance remains profitable with a combined ratio in the low-to-mid 90s, but consolidated progress stays uneven because Industrial earnings remain pressured and Financial results are volatile. Repurchases and long-term capital allocation support per-share value creation. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2,107.0024% Insurance underwriting improvement persists, adjusted premium growth remains positive, Industrial margins recover, and the Financial segment returns to profitability. Consumer and Other continues contributing growth while disciplined repurchases increase each remaining shareholder's participation in long-term intrinsic-value compounding. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |