Marcus & Millichap Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $32.56median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $28.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $943.2M Shares Outstanding 38.2M diluted Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Marcus & Millichap, Inc. (MMI) is a leading commercial real estate brokerage and financing firm in North America. While the company showed a notable recovery in Q1 2026 with an 18% year-over-year revenue increase and narrowed net losses, the broader commercial real estate (CRE) recovery remains uneven. High interest rates and macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on transaction volumes, particularly in larger deals. MMI maintains an exceptionally strong balance sheet with no debt and substantial cash reserves, providing a solid buffer. However, the stock trades at a rich multiple relative to near-term earnings, and capital returns via dividends lag behind peers. Consequently, a neutral Hold stance is warranted until a more robust and sustained CRE market recovery is firmly established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.00 Mean target$28.00 High · most bullish analyst$28.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.00 Interest rates remain elevated for longer, or a broader economic recession occurs, causing a renewed freeze in CRE transactions. Property valuations decline further, and commission rates compress. MMI experiences prolonged net losses, leading to significant operating cash outflows that eventually threaten its dividend policy. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.00 Matches the consensus meanThe CRE market undergoes a gradual, uneven recovery. Transaction volumes stabilize and grow modestly, supported by steady middle-market activity. MMI's revenue grows in the high single to low double digits, and net losses continue to narrow toward break-even. The company maintains its strong balance sheet and continues modest share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.00 A rapid decline in interest rates stimulates a massive wave of refinancing and transaction activity, unlocking the estimated $1.4 trillion in approaching CRE loan maturities. MMI's middle-market focus and proprietary database allow it to capture market share rapidly, driving double-digit revenue growth and a swift return to strong profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |