Marathon Petroleum Corp Dossier
Outlook & Key Dates
Estimates, guidance, catalysts, and upcoming events
Analyst Estimates Learn more →
5-Yr Fwd EPS Growth
25.7%projected annual EPS growth
Analyst Coverage
18analysts covering
FY Revenue (est.)
$165.4Bnext fiscal year
FY EPS (est.)
$50.23next fiscal year
Monitoring Framework
Key Performance Indicators
Refining Crude Capacity Utilization Rate Quarterly89.0%Target: Maximize utilization safely based on market demand
Refining & Marketing Margin per Barrel Quarterly1,774.0%Target: Optimize capture rate and yield flexibility
Refining & Marketing Segment Adjusted EBITDA per Barrel Quarterly5.4Target: Maximize operational efficiency and cost control
Watch Items
- Global Refining Crack Spreads and Geopolitical PremiumTrigger: Rapid normalization of Gulf Coast crack spreads toward pre-war levelsAction: Re-evaluate near-term EPS projections and adjust capital expenditure priorities
- Regulatory Compliance Costs (RINs)Trigger: RIN expenses exceeding $600 million per quarterAction: Assess impact on Refining & Marketing margins and evaluate mitigation strategies
- MPLX Distribution GrowthTrigger: Deviation from the expected 12.5% annual distribution growth to MPCAction: Review midstream segment performance and cash flow allocation to the parent company
Research as of 2 Sep 2026