Marathon Bancorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Marathon Bancorp Inc

MBBCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.55

Intrinsic Value $10.03median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $14.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $44.5M

Enterprise Value $47.7M

Shares Outstanding 2.7M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) represents a highly capitalized, low-risk micro-cap community bank operating in Wisconsin. Following its successful mutual-to-stock conversion, the bank boasts a fortress balance sheet with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 15.35%, providing a substantial buffer against credit losses and ample dry powder for capital management. Recent financial results demonstrate a powerful turnaround in profitability, with Q3 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) net income rising to $487,863 (diluted EPS of $0.18) from $148,403 in the prior year, driven by robust loan growth to $213.5 million. The initiation of its first stock repurchase program for up to 5% of outstanding shares further underscores management's commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$13.0020%

Intensified competition for regional deposits forces higher funding costs, compressing net interest margins. A localized economic downturn in Wisconsin leads to rising non-performing assets and increased credit loss provisions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$16.5050%

Steady loan portfolio expansion and stable deposit retention maintain net interest income around current levels. The bank continues to leverage its strong capital position to support organic growth while gradually executing share repurchases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.5030%

Accelerated loan growth in high-yield commercial real estate and business lending, combined with successful execution of the 5% stock buyback program, drives return on equity (ROE) expansion and multiple rerating toward peer averages.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Fortress capital position with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 15.35%, far exceeding regulatory well-capitalized requirements.
Strong earnings momentum, with net income increasing over 200% year-over-year in the quarter ended March 31, 2026.
Shareholder-friendly capital allocation highlighted by the newly adopted 5% stock repurchase program.
Conservative underwriting culture resulting in manageable asset quality and low non-performing loan ratios.

Key Investment Risks

Net interest margin pressure from rising deposit costs and intense regional banking competition.
Geographic concentration risk, with operations primarily focused in North Central Wisconsin.
Limited stock liquidity typical of micro-cap financial institutions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Severe compression of net interest margin below sustainable operating levels.
A material spike in non-performing loans or credit loss provisions.
Suspension or termination of the newly adopted stock repurchase program without execution.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.