Maplebear Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryInternet Retail Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $65.10median of 6 methods · middle span $40-$351based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $44.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.5B Enterprise Value $9.7B Shares Outstanding 248.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Maplebear entered the second half of 2026 with broad operating momentum: Q2 GTV and revenue each increased 14% year over year, advertising and other revenue increased 16%, and adjusted EBITDA increased 19%. Free cash flow also strengthened, supporting continued repurchases. The balanced Hold recommendation reflects these favorable operating trends against margin compression, lower year-over-year GAAP net income, execution and regulatory risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$57.00 High · most bullish analyst$77.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.0018% The bear case assumes GTV or adjusted EBITDA falls below the lower end of Q3 guidance as competitive, regulatory or customer-engagement pressures offset marketplace and advertising momentum. Base CaseCentral scenario $57.0059% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Q3 GTV and adjusted EBITDA remain within management's respective $10.30-$10.55 billion and $320-$340 million guidance ranges, while advertising continues to outgrow GTV and reinvestment moderates the pace of EBITDA expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $77.0023% The bull case assumes GTV and adjusted EBITDA reach or exceed the upper ends of Q3 guidance as customer growth, enterprise-technology adoption, advertising expansion, AI integrations and retailer partnerships reinforce one another. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |