Manulife Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryLife & Health Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.89 Intrinsic Value $15.51median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $42.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 64% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-64%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $70.6B Shares Outstanding 1.7B diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Manulife entered the second half of 2026 with positive operating momentum: Q2 core EPS increased 16% year over year, APE sales increased 21%, new business CSM increased 16%, and core ROE reached 16.3%. The refreshed strategy provides a measurable path toward at least 18% core ROE in 2027, while the planned Indian life-insurance joint venture adds a prospective long-duration growth platform. Offsetting these merits, Global Wealth and Asset Management net inflows slowed to C$0.4 billion from C$0.9 billion in the comparable quarter, and execution is still required to close the gap between current core ROE and the 2027 target. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.45 Mean target$34.45 High · most bullish analyst$34.45 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $34.4520% Insurance new-business momentum stalls, Global Wealth and Asset Management moves into net outflows, or operating execution leaves full-year 2027 core ROE below 18%. These outcomes would undermine the central strategic target and weaken the operating case. Base CaseCentral scenario $34.4555% Matches the consensus meanInsurance new-business growth moderates from Q2 2026 levels but remains positive, core ROE progresses toward the 2027 target, and Global Wealth and Asset Management continues to generate modest positive net inflows. Bull CaseUpside scenario $34.4525% Insurance demand and new-business economics remain strong, core ROE reaches or exceeds 18% by full-year 2027, wealth-management flows remain positive, and the Mahindra Manulife insurance venture advances successfully. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |