Manitowoc Co Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.47 Intrinsic Value $19.42median of 6 methods · middle span $12-$27based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $807.8M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 37.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Nov 2015 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Manitowoc is a highly cyclical, niche player in the global crane and lifting equipment market, currently facing severe margin pressures and intense competition from larger, more diversified peers. While the company benefits from a strong order backlog and secular tailwinds in infrastructure and renewable energy, its extremely thin trailing net profit margin (0.3%) and high operating leverage make it highly vulnerable to economic downturns. With a premium valuation relative to its current fundamental performance and a consensus rating of Strong Sell from analysts, the stock presents significant downside risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$10.50 High · most bullish analyst$11.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes a mild global recession or a slowdown in non-residential construction that triggers a sharp decline in new orders. Given Manitowoc's high operating leverage and thin margins, a 10% drop in orders would turn EPS growth negative and expose its weak interest coverage, leading to a retest of historical valuation lows. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Manitowoc continues to navigate a mixed macroeconomic environment with modest revenue growth driven by US infrastructure spending and renewable energy projects. However, persistent tariff impacts, elevated SG&A expenses, and intense pricing pressure from larger competitors like Liebherr and state-owned Chinese manufacturers will limit EBITDA margin expansion, keeping profitability depressed. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |