Manhattan Bridge Capital Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Manhattan Bridge Capital Inc

LOANNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage REITs

Beta (adjusted)0.45

Intrinsic Value $4.20median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $3.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $42.8M

Enterprise Value $48.9M

Shares Outstanding 11.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026

Next ex-dividend8 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOAN) operates a highly disciplined, low-leverage hard money lending model focused on short-term first mortgage loans in the New York metropolitan area and Florida. While the company maintains exceptional credit quality with virtually no historical loan losses and a robust capital base, it faces near-term headwinds from a high-interest-rate environment that has slowed down new loan originations and compressed net interest margins. The company's conservative underwriting and stable dividend yield of over 10% provide strong downside protection, making it an attractive income vehicle, but limited growth catalysts justify a Hold rating at current valuation levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.8015%

A prolonged real estate downturn or localized economic weakness in the New York metro area leads to borrower defaults, forcing the company to foreclose on collateral. Slower-than-expected capital redeployment and elevated non-accrual loans compress earnings, forcing a dividend cut.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$4.5060%

The company continues its cautious, capital-preservation strategy, maintaining stable but flat loan originations. Net interest margins remain stable as lower credit facility usage offsets softer interest income. The dividend is sustained at or near $0.11 per quarter, keeping the stock range-bound with a high yield.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$5.5025%

A decline in benchmark interest rates stimulates real estate transaction volumes, leading to a sharp rebound in loan origination activity. Lower borrowing costs on the company's credit facility expand net interest margins, driving EPS back toward historical highs of $0.49+ and supporting dividend increases.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Conservative underwriting with low loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and personal guarantees from borrower principals.
Strong balance sheet with low leverage and a stable equity base of approximately $43.1 million.
High dividend yield exceeding 10%, supported by REIT distribution requirements.
Proven track record of capital preservation and minimal credit impairments through multiple economic cycles.

Key Investment Risks

High geographic concentration with over 90% of the loan portfolio located in the New York metropolitan region.
Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, where rising bank credit line costs compress lending spreads.
Dependence on key management, particularly CEO Assaf Ran, for loan origination and relationship management.
Intense competition from traditional banks and other specialty finance companies in the bridge lending space.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant increase in non-performing loans or write-offs exceeding 5% of the total portfolio.
A reduction in the quarterly dividend payment below $0.10 per share.
Failure to renew or extend the bank credit facility on favorable terms.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.