Mammoth Energy Services Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $0.58median of 4 methods · middle span $0-$1based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 80% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-80%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $136.7M Enterprise Value $85.8M Shares Outstanding 48.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 May 2019 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK) has successfully executed a major corporate restructuring, selling off underperforming infrastructure and engineering subsidiaries to pivot toward a highly profitable aircraft rental and aviation services model. This strategic shift has dramatically improved margins, driving a return to positive Adjusted EBITDA and net profitability in Q1 2026. Backed by a robust debt-free balance sheet with substantial cash reserves, the company is well-positioned to capture high-margin growth in the aviation and rental sectors, making it an attractive turnaround play for risk-tolerant investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Delays in aircraft leasing or a sudden downturn in aviation demand impact utilization rates. Re-emerging operational challenges or cost overruns in the remaining energy services segments drag down margins, delaying the full-year profitability target. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully deploys its expanded aviation rental fleet and maintains high utilization rates. Revenue growth exceeds the guided 60% for full-year 2026, and Adjusted EBITDA remains consistently positive throughout the year, supported by sustained SG&A cost reductions. Bull CaseUpside scenario Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK) represents a compelling turnaround and asset-play story. Following a radical corporate restructuring that involved selling off its primary infrastructure division and hydraulic fracturing fleet, the company has eliminated its bank debt and built a substantial cash position. In Q1 2026, Mammoth achieved a major financial inflection point, reporting its first positive adjusted EBITDA in eight quarters ($22.03 million in revenue, up 90% YoY, and EPS of $0.11), driven by strong performance in its aviation rentals and accommodations segments. Furthermore, the company has resolved its long-standing litigation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), securing a total settlement of $188.4 million (of which $168.4 million has already been received), leaving the company debt-free with significant liquidity to fund its pivot into high-margin aviation rentals and fiber optic infrastructure services. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |