MakeMyTrip Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

MakeMyTrip Ltd

MMYTNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryTravel Services

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $89.72median of 6 methods · middle span $50-$657based on filings through 31 Mar 2025

Market Price $47.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 88% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+88%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4.5B

Enterprise Value $4B

Shares Outstanding 94.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MakeMyTrip (MMYT) is the undisputed leader in India's online travel market, commanding over 50% market share across key segments. The company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on structural tailwinds, including a rising middle class, increasing digital adoption, and under-penetrated travel services in India. Despite near-term headwinds from geopolitical conflicts and domestic air capacity constraints, MMYT's strong operating leverage, robust cash generation, and strategic integration of AI across its platform support a highly attractive long-term growth narrative.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$65.00

Mean target$75.40

High · most bullish analyst$85.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$65.00

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East severely depress outbound travel, while persistent domestic air supply issues and aggressive competition from regional players compress margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$75.40

Matches the consensus mean

Steady domestic travel demand, continued shift from offline to online bookings, and stable adjusted operating profit margins of 1.8% to 2.0% of gross bookings, in line with management guidance.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$85.00

Rapid recovery in outbound travel, easing of domestic airline capacity constraints, and successful monetization of AI-driven personalization lead to market share gains and margin expansion above the historical range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market position with over 50% share of the Indian online travel market across flights, hotels, and buses.
Strong structural tailwinds driven by India's growing middle class, rising discretionary spend, and low digital travel penetration.
Robust balance sheet with over $782 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing significant financial flexibility.
Proven operating leverage, converting 97% of adjusted operating profit into operating cash flow in FY26.

Key Investment Risks

Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in West Asia, impacting high-margin outbound international travel.
Supply-side constraints in the domestic aviation sector, such as aircraft groundings, limiting air ticketing volume growth.
Regulatory risks, including ongoing scrutiny by the Competition Commission of India (CCI) regarding price parity and exclusivity.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Adjusted operating profit margin falling consistently below 1.5% of gross bookings.
Loss of market leadership in key verticals to aggressive regional or global competitors.
Adverse regulatory rulings by the CCI that materially disrupt supplier relationships or pricing models.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.