Magyar Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $16.52median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $19.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $124.5M Enterprise Value $162.1M Shares Outstanding 6.3M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Magyar Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGYR) operates as a stable, high-performing community bank in Central New Jersey, recently recognized on the 2026 KBW Bank Honor Roll for its consistent long-term earnings growth. The bank has demonstrated robust financial health, with net income for the six months ended March 31, 2026, increasing 29% YoY to $6.2 million, supported by a solid net interest margin of 3.59% and an exceptionally low non-performing loans ratio of 0.03%. However, as a micro-cap regional bank, it faces potential headwinds from deposit competition, rising operating costs (compensation and technology investments), and concentration in commercial real estate and construction lending. Given the lack of formal forward guidance and limited analyst coverage, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the bank consolidates its strong local market position. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $15.0015% Elevated commercial property vacancy rates in New Jersey trigger a rise in non-performing CRE and construction loans, forcing the bank to significantly increase its allowance for credit losses. Intense deposit competition compresses margins, while rising technology and staffing costs pressure the efficiency ratio. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.5070% The bank maintains its stable net interest margin and low credit risk profile. Core deposits continue to grow steadily through digital marketing and retail channels, offsetting moderate increases in compensation and technology expenses. Earnings grow at a stable single-digit rate. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0025% The bank successfully expands its commercial loan portfolio while maintaining pristine asset quality. Net interest margin expands further as higher-yielding commercial loans reprice, and core deposits grow steadily through digital channels, driving double-digit earnings growth. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |