Magnum Ice Cream Company NV Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $6.01median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $17.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 65% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-65%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.4B Enterprise Value $13.3B Shares Outstanding 612.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The operating evidence is constructive: H1 2026 organic sales grew 4.7%, balanced between 2.5% volume and 2.2% price, adjusted EBIT margin increased 50 basis points, and the productivity programme delivered EUR 90 million of savings. The counterweight is incomplete separation execution: adjusted EBITDA margin was 18.7% versus 19.0% a year earlier, including material TSA and acquired-business effects. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.20 Mean target$18.65 High · most bullish analyst$20.20 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.2023% Organic growth falls below guidance as volume momentum weakens or pricing becomes harder to sustain, while TSA exits and acquired-business integration take longer or cost more than planned. Under that outcome, savings would be absorbed by execution costs rather than producing the expected margin expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.6558% Matches the consensus meanOrganic sales growth remains within the 3%-5% FY 2026 range, productivity offsets part of the remaining separation and acquisition burden, and margins improve on a comparable basis while reported improvement remains modest. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.2019% Organic growth remains near or above the upper end of FY 2026 guidance, volume stays positive, productivity savings accumulate as planned, and TSA exits remove a material source of margin drag. This would strengthen evidence that the independent company can convert its global brand scale into sustained profitable growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |