Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value $33.84median of 6 methods · middle span $26-$120based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.6B Enterprise Value $6.7B Shares Outstanding 274.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) represents a high-quality, low-leverage independent exploration and production (E&P) company with a highly disciplined business model. Operating primarily in the Giddings and Karnes areas of South Texas, the company focuses on generating substantial free cash flow, maintaining a fortress balance sheet with near-zero net debt, and executing a moderate reinvestment rate (~50% of EBITDAX). Because Magnolia remains completely unhedged, it is uniquely positioned to capture full upside during periods of elevated commodity prices, while its low breakeven costs and high capital efficiency provide strong defensive characteristics during downturns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$32.88 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.00 A significant global economic slowdown or resolved geopolitical tensions lead to a sharp decline in crude oil prices (WTI dropping below $65/bbl). Since Magnolia is completely unhedged, its cash flow and operating margins compress rapidly, forcing a reduction in capital expenditures and a slowdown in share repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $32.88 Matches the consensus meanWTI crude oil prices stabilize in the mid-$70s to low-$80s range. Magnolia successfully delivers on its 2026 guidance of ~5% production growth with flat capital spending of $440-$480 million. The company continues to return substantial capital to shareholders through its base dividend and steady share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.00 Elevated global crude oil prices (WTI averaging above $90/bbl) combined with strong operational execution in the Giddings field drive record free cash flow. Accelerated share repurchases and consistent dividend growth enhance shareholder returns, while high-return bolt-on acquisitions expand the company's drilling inventory. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |