Magnite Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryAdvertising Agencies Beta (adjusted)1.85 Intrinsic Value $40.10median of 6 methods · middle span $15-$53based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 58% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+58%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.6B Enterprise Value $3.7B Shares Outstanding 152.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Magnite, Inc. is strongly positioned as the world's largest independent sell-side advertising platform (SSP), serving as a primary beneficiary of the secular shift of advertising budgets from linear television to Connected TV (CTV) and programmatic streaming. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust operational execution, highlighted by a 30% year-over-year expansion in CTV Contribution ex-TAC, which now represents over 50% of the business mix. Despite seasonal headwinds and weakness in the automotive vertical, Magnite achieved GAAP profitability and raised its full-year 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow growth. The launch of the Magnite Orchestration platform further enhances its competitive moat by integrating AI-driven agentic programmatic capabilities, positioning the company to capture incremental market share as publishers seek independent, omnichannel monetization solutions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$21.00 Mean target$27.33 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential degradation in CTV take rates due to intense competition from walled gardens and rival SSPs, alongside persistent macroeconomic headwinds that depress overall brand ad spend. A prolonged decline in the DV+ segment or integration friction during the CFO transition could also pressure multiples. Under this scenario, Contribution ex-TAC growth slows to mid-single digits and EBITDA margins compress. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Magnite successfully executes its 2026 strategy, achieving at least 11% growth in Contribution ex-TAC and expanding its Adjusted EBITDA margin to at least 35.5%. CTV continues to grow at a double-digit rate, offsetting minor, stabilizing declines in the DV+ segment. AI-driven efficiencies in cloud infrastructure and operations sustain margin expansion, and the CFO transition proceeds smoothly without disrupting investor relations or financial controls. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |