Magna International Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)1.56 Intrinsic Value $54.28median of 6 methods · middle span $47-$59based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $64.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17.2B Enterprise Value $20.3B Shares Outstanding 282.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Magna's second-quarter execution was strong: sales increased despite declining global light-vehicle production, adjusted EBIT margin expanded, adjusted EPS reached a second-quarter record and free cash flow improved. Management consequently raised its 2026 margin, EPS and free-cash-flow outlook. However, the issuer-reported NYSE price of USD 65.86 on August 28, 2026 already reflects part of that progress, while vehicle-production cyclicality, tariffs, customer pricing, foreign exchange, program transitions and EV-related volume changes remain material uncertainties. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$73.17 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0022% Lower vehicle production, customer price concessions, unfavorable mix, tariff leakage, commodity pressure or program transitions push results below the raised outlook. A reversal in margin progress or weaker cash conversion would justify a materially lower valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.1756% Matches the consensus meanMagna delivers within its raised 2026 outlook, with adjusted EBIT margin and free cash flow near their respective ranges and continued, but moderating, market outgrowth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0022% Magna sustains sales growth above vehicle production, reaches the upper end of its 6.3%-6.6% adjusted EBIT-margin outlook, converts approximately the upper end of its USD 1.75-1.85 billion free-cash-flow range and continues disciplined shareholder returns. Strong execution and successful program launches support a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |