Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc

MDGLNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)-0.33

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $499.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $11.5B

Enterprise Value $11.6B

Shares Outstanding 23.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Madrigal has demonstrated strong commercial execution: second-quarter 2026 Rezdiffra net sales reached $364.3 million, increased 71% year over year, and were supported by more than 49,000 patients at quarter-end and more than 50,000 in July. Rezdiffra's first-in-disease position, approvals for F2-F3 MASH in the United States and European Union, expanding intellectual-property coverage, the ongoing F4c outcomes program and initiation of the MGL-2086 oral GLP-1 Phase 1 program create meaningful growth optionality.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$543.00

Mean target$678.06

High · most bullish analyst$962.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$543.0018%

Rezdiffra adoption stalls or patient persistence weakens, competitive or payer pressure reduces growth, or clinical and regulatory setbacks impair the F4c or MGL-2086 programs. Concentration in Rezdiffra would amplify the effect of any adverse safety, label or demand development.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$678.0657%

Matches the consensus mean

Rezdiffra remains the foundational F2-F3 MASH therapy and continues to add patients, although growth moderates from the 71% year-over-year rate reported in the second quarter of 2026. F4c and MGL-2086 remain potentially valuable but unproven development options.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$962.0025%

Rezdiffra maintains strong patient and sales growth, broader diagnosis and prescribing expand the treated MASH market, real-world evidence reinforces physician confidence, and the F4c and MGL-2086 programs advance without material safety or regulatory setbacks.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Commercial momentum is substantial: second-quarter 2026 Rezdiffra net sales were $364.3 million, up 71% year over year, with more than 49,000 patients at June 30 and more than 50,000 reached in July.
Rezdiffra was the first medicine approved by both the FDA and European Commission for MASH with moderate-to-advanced F2-F3 fibrosis, supporting an important first-mover position.
Lifecycle opportunities include additional resmetirom patents, an ongoing F4c outcomes trial and the MGL-2086 oral GLP-1 combination program, which entered Phase 1 dosing in June 2026.

Key Investment Risks

The commercial thesis is highly concentrated in Rezdiffra, so adverse changes in demand, persistence, reimbursement, safety or the product label could have an outsized effect.
The FDA approval was granted under the accelerated-approval pathway, making successful verification of clinical benefit and continued regulatory compliance important to the long-term thesis.
The F4c indication and MGL-2086 combination strategy remain subject to clinical-development, safety, timing and regulatory uncertainty.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.