MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.48 Intrinsic Value $242.01median of 6 methods · middle span $160-$478based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $301.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $23B Enterprise Value $23.3B Shares Outstanding 77.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MACOM entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: fiscal Q3 revenue increased 35.8% year over year, adjusted operating margin reached 31.5%, and management guided fiscal Q4 revenue to USD 415-425 million with a 60.0%-61.0% adjusted gross margin. Data Center revenue increased 81.5% year over year and Industrial & Defense revenue increased 23.3%, while the completed IQE investment and long-term supply agreements are intended to reinforce epitaxial supply. The evidence supports a favorable operating outlook, but customer concentration. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$300.00 Mean target$399.64 High · most bullish analyst$475.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $300.0020% Fiscal Q4 revenue or adjusted gross margin falls below guidance as customer concentration, trade restrictions, demand volatility or product-mix changes offset Data Center and defense momentum. Rising inventories would increase the consequences of any demand correction. Base CaseCentral scenario $399.6456% Matches the consensus meanMACOM delivers within its fiscal Q4 revenue and adjusted gross-margin guidance ranges, with Data Center and defense demand remaining the principal growth engines while Telecom grows more moderately. Bull CaseUpside scenario $475.0024% MACOM meets or exceeds the top of its fiscal Q4 guidance, sustains rapid optical Data Center growth, and converts the higher-volume product mix into adjusted gross margin above 61%. Continued Industrial & Defense growth and improved supply resilience from the IQE agreements reinforce the expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |