Macerich Co Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)1.72 Intrinsic Value $15.08median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $6.6B Enterprise Value $11.3B Shares Outstanding 267.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Macerich is successfully transitioning from a turnaround story to a core earnings growth phase under its 'Path Forward Plan'. By aggressively recycling capital, walking away from underperforming assets (such as the Santa Monica Place default), and focusing on its high-productivity Class A regional malls, the company is driving a powerful earnings ramp projected for 2027/2028. Operational momentum is highly visible, highlighted by a robust Signed Not Open (SNO) leasing pipeline of $116 million that is expected to scale to $140 million. Deleveraging progress is also ahead of schedule, with net debt to EBITDA reduced from 8.76x at year-end 2023 to 7.76x as of Q1 2026, targeting 6.0x. Recent tactical acquisitions, like the Annapolis Mall, further demonstrate management's ability to execute accretive transactions using improved equity valuations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$26.63 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.00 Macroeconomic headwinds or a consumer spending slowdown cause elevated tenant bankruptcies, offsetting new store openings and keeping occupancy flat in the low-90s. Asset sales stall due to tight credit markets, leaving leverage elevated above 7.5x. FFO per share fails to ramp, landing at or below $1.70 by 2028. Base CaseCentral scenario $26.63 Matches the consensus meanMacerich executes steadily on its Path Forward Plan, completing $600M to $700M of planned dispositions and givebacks through 2027. Go-Forward Portfolio NOI grows at a 3% to 4% CAGR, and the SNO pipeline steadily commences operations. Leverage declines gradually toward 6.5x, and FFO per share reaches the midpoint of the 2028 target ($1.90). Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.00 The SNO pipeline converts to active leases faster than expected, driving Go-Forward Portfolio NOI growth above 5% annually. Dispositions of non-core assets execute at highly favorable cap rates, accelerating deleveraging to the 6.0x net debt to EBITDA target by late 2027. Strong retail demand allows double-digit leasing spreads, pushing 2028 FFO per share to the top of the guided range ($2.00). Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |