LyondellBasell Industries NV Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $69.71median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $57.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.7B Enterprise Value $27.3B Shares Outstanding 323M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LyondellBasell's second-quarter performance showed substantial operating leverage from tighter petrochemical supply, disciplined commercial execution and approximately 90% utilization of advantaged North American assets. The completed European divestiture and Cash Improvement Plan should lower structural costs, but the evidence does not yet establish a durable upcycle: management still describes a prolonged industry downturn, expects volatile supply conditions and plans lower third-quarter operating rates. The February dividend reduction also demonstrates that shareholder distributions remain sensitive to through-cycle cash generation. These offsetting factors support a Hold pending evidence that cost improvements and stronger margins persist after disrupted supply returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$69.53 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.0020% Conflict-affected supply returns faster than expected or demand weakens, compressing petrochemical margins and forcing utilization below management's planned levels. Cash improvement then proves insufficient to offset cyclical pressure, increasing the risk of another reduction in shareholder distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.5360% Matches the consensus meanExceptional second-quarter conditions normalize, with operating rates moving toward management's third-quarter plans, while portfolio simplification and fixed-cost reductions preserve part of the earnings improvement. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.0020% Supply disruption persists into 2027, allowing LyondellBasell to sustain high utilization and favorable polymer margins. The structurally lower-cost portfolio following the European divestiture and continued Cash Improvement Plan execution translate temporary market tightness into durable cash-generation improvement. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |