Lyell Immunopharma Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.30 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $9.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $230.6M Enterprise Value $157.6M Shares Outstanding 24.9M diluted Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lyell Immunopharma is a highly promising clinical-stage cell therapy company transitioning into a late-stage player with its lead dual-targeting CD19/CD20 CAR T-cell candidate, ronde-cel (rondecabtagene autoleucel). The company's proprietary technologies, including CD62L+ enrichment and Epi-R, address the critical industry challenge of T-cell exhaustion, enabling durable clinical responses. With a robust cash runway extending into Q2 2027, a clear regulatory path toward a 2027 BLA submission for ronde-cel in large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL), and promising early efficacy in solid tumors via LYL273 for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), Lyell presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile at its current valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$38.14 High · most bullish analyst$49.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The PiNACLE trial experiences unexpected safety signals or a drop in efficacy during the larger pivotal cohort, delaying or derailing the BLA submission. LYL273 fails to show durable responses in the expanded solid tumor cohorts, or severe colitis cases re-emerge despite prophylaxis, limiting its clinical utility. The cash runway is exhausted before commercialization, forcing highly dilutive equity raises. Base CaseCentral scenario Ronde-cel successfully completes enrollment in the PiNACLE trial by the end of 2026. The pivotal data readout in mid-2027 confirms the high response rates (93% ORR, 76% CR) and favorable safety profile (no Grade 3+ CRS, low ICANS) observed in early phases, leading to FDA approval in late 2028. LYL273 advances smoothly into a pivotal Phase 2 trial for mCRC after a successful End-of-Phase 1 meeting with the FDA in late 2026, establishing proof-of-concept in solid tumors. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Lyell hinges on the clinical success and best-in-class potential of ronde-cel, which features dual CD19/CD20 targeting and CD62L+ enrichment to drive durable responses and low toxicity in LBCL. With the stock trading near cash value, positive pivotal data from the PiNACLE trial in late 2026/mid-2027 and a successful BLA submission in 2027 could trigger a significant valuation re-rating from a cash-backed story to a commercial-stage CAR-T platform. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |