Lumentum Holdings Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

LITENASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.35

Intrinsic Value $105.84median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,045.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 90% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-90%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $93.8B

Enterprise Value $93.4B

Shares Outstanding 89.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lumentum entered FY2027 with exceptional operating momentum. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue increased 109.3% year over year and 24.5% sequentially to $1,006.3 million, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 36.6%. Management guided FY2027 Q1 revenue to $1.225-$1.275 billion and non-GAAP operating margin to 39.5%-40.5%, supported by AI-related optical connectivity and emerging OCS, 1.6T cloud-module, CPO-laser, ELS, and NPO opportunities.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$800.00

Mean target$1,125.93

High · most bullish analyst$1,400.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$800.0020%

Capacity expansion, supplier or contract-manufacturer execution, product-mix pressure, lower average selling prices, order delays, or customer inventory changes prevent Lumentum from reaching the low end of FY2027 Q1 guidance. Revenue falls below $1.225 billion or non-GAAP operating margin falls below 39.5%, calling into question the pace and profitability of the AI-optics ramp.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,125.9356%

Matches the consensus mean

Lumentum delivers FY2027 Q1 revenue within its $1.225-$1.275 billion guidance range and non-GAAP operating margin within 39.5%-40.5%. AI-driven optical demand and new-product ramps sustain growth, while capacity requirements, product-mix volatility, pricing, and execution risks moderate the rate of upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,400.0024%

Demand for AI data-center optics remains stronger than management's assumptions, manufacturing capacity scales without material disruption, and OCS, 1.6T cloud modules, CPO lasers, ELS modules, and NPO engagements layer onto the existing component and systems businesses. Revenue exceeds the $1.275 billion upper end of FY2027 Q1 guidance and non-GAAP operating margin exceeds 40.5%, demonstrating additional operating leverage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $1,006.3 million, increasing 24.5% sequentially and 109.3% year over year; full-year revenue increased 83.2% to $3,014.0 million.
Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 36.6% in fiscal Q4 2026 from 32.2% sequentially and 15.0% one year earlier, and management guided 39.5%-40.5% for FY2027 Q1.
Management identified multiple incremental AI-connectivity opportunities, including OCS, 1.6T cloud modules, ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial ELS-module order, and NPO engagements.

Key Investment Risks

Rapid demand growth requires Lumentum, its suppliers, and its contract manufacturers to expand capacity while meeting production, quality, and delivery requirements.
Product-mix fluctuations, declining average selling prices, and higher input costs can materially reduce margins even when revenue grows.
Customer-demand changes, inventory adjustments, cancellations or delays, trade restrictions, and debt-servicing obligations could disrupt the growth and margin trajectory.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.