LSB Industries Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

LSB Industries Inc

LXUNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryDiversified Chemicals

Beta (adjusted)0.54

Intrinsic Value $17.51median of 6 methods · middle span $10-$136based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $9.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 79% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+79%)

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Market Cap $702.7M

Enterprise Value $1.1B

Shares Outstanding 73.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend29 Dec 1998

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

LSB Industries (LXU) is demonstrating strong operational execution and disciplined commercial strategy, as evidenced by its robust Q1 2026 results which beat consensus expectations. The company is successfully shifting its product mix toward higher-value Ammonium Nitrate (AN) and Nitric Acid to capture strong mining and industrial demand. Furthermore, its strategic positioning in low-carbon ammonia via the El Dorado CCS project provides a compelling long-term growth narrative. However, near-term performance remains highly sensitive to volatile natural gas feedstock costs and cyclical nitrogen fertilizer pricing. Given these commodity headwinds and the upcoming scheduled turnaround at El Dorado, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market balances near-term volatility against long-term green transition upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$11.00

Mean target$13.70

High · most bullish analyst$18.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0015%

A sharp decline in global nitrogen fertilizer prices combined with a spike in natural gas feedstock costs severely compresses margins. Operational disruptions or extended delays in the El Dorado turnaround and CCS project Class VI permit approval lead to revenue shortfalls and multiple contraction.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.0060%

LSB maintains stable plant operating rates and successfully navigates the scheduled turnaround at El Dorado. Natural gas prices stabilize around historical averages, and the company continues to optimize its product mix toward industrial and mining applications. The El Dorado CCS project remains on track for late 2026/early 2027 operations, supporting a neutral valuation multiple.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.0025%

Accelerated EPA approval of the Class VI permit for the El Dorado CCS project enables low-carbon ammonia production ahead of schedule. Strong global demand and tight supply keep nitrogen fertilizer prices elevated, while domestic natural gas prices remain low, driving significant margin expansion and de-leveraging.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational discipline driving record production rates in key downstream products like Nitric Acid and Ammonium Nitrate.
Strategic transition toward low-carbon products, highlighted by the El Dorado CCS project which targets capturing 400,000 to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually.
Flexible manufacturing capabilities allowing the company to optimize product mix between agricultural, industrial, and mining end markets based on relative pricing strength.

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to volatile natural gas prices, which represent the primary raw material feedstock for ammonia production.
Exposure to cyclical and highly competitive global nitrogen chemical and fertilizer markets.
Execution risks associated with scheduled plant turnarounds and large-scale capital projects like the El Dorado CCS facility.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in global nitrogen fertilizer prices exceeding 20%.
Prolonged delays or regulatory rejection of the EPA Class VI permit for the El Dorado carbon sequestration project.
Significant operational unplanned outages at any of the three primary manufacturing facilities (Cherokee, El Dorado, Pryor).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.