LPL Financial Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInvestment Banking & Brokerage Beta (adjusted)0.65 Intrinsic Value $401.54median of 5 methods · middle span $317-$498based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $312.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $24.6B Enterprise Value $30.8B Shares Outstanding 81.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LPL entered the second half of 2026 with strong scale, a growing advisory mix, positive organic and recruited asset flows, and expanding wealth-management capabilities. The principal near-term execution test is Commonwealth: LPL must retain approximately 90% of assets and complete onboarding in the fourth quarter while controlling integration costs and maintaining service quality. A Hold is appropriate because operating momentum is favorable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$372.00 Mean target$431.86 High · most bullish analyst$557.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $372.0020% The bear case is an integration or flow disappointment: Commonwealth retention falls below target, organic net new assets turn negative, advisory mix retraces toward its prior-year level, or cash sorting continues below the second-quarter benchmark. Those developments would weaken the expected benefits of LPL's increased scale and platform investment. Base CaseCentral scenario $431.8656% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes positive but variable organic growth, continued expansion of fee-based advisory assets, and Commonwealth onboarding completed during the fourth quarter with retention close to management's approximately 90% target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $557.0024% The bull case requires sustained positive organic flows, continued recruiting, advisory mix at or above the second-quarter level, and Commonwealth retention near the stated target. Successful conversion and broader adoption of LPL's investment, alternatives, lending and high-net-worth capabilities would strengthen platform economics and advisor loyalty. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |