Lowe's Cos Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHome Improvement Retail Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $222.85median of 5 methods · middle span $210-$258based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $182.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $102.3B Enterprise Value $139B Shares Outstanding 560M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lowe's entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with five consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales and strong Pro, Online and Home Services execution, but persistent discretionary DIY pressure led management to reduce fiscal-year sales, comparable-sales, margin and EPS expectations to the bottom of its previous ranges. The resulting balance of channel momentum, a growing dividend and weakened near-term guidance supports a Hold rather than a directional call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$202.00 Mean target$261.06 High · most bullish analyst$300.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $202.0017% Discretionary DIY demand deteriorates further, comparable sales turn negative, and margin falls below the revised 11.6% adjusted outlook as weaker mix or cost pressure outweighs Pro and digital growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $261.0658% Matches the consensus meanComparable sales remain approximately flat for fiscal 2026, adjusted operating margin is near 11.6%, and adjusted diluted EPS is approximately $12.25, consistent with the updated company outlook. Pro, Online and Home Services growth offsets continued discretionary DIY weakness without producing a broad demand recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $300.0025% Pro, Online and Home Services momentum broadens into DIY demand, comparable sales finish above the current flat outlook, and adjusted operating margin exceeds 11.6%. The 15.7% second-quarter online growth rate demonstrates meaningful digital momentum. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |