Loma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anonima ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Loma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anonima ADR

LOMANYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryBuilding Materials

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.1B

Enterprise Value $290.4B

Shares Outstanding 116.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2023

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Loma Negra is the leading cement producer in Argentina, well-positioned to benefit from a gradual macroeconomic recovery and infrastructure demand. Despite a challenging hyperinflationary environment, the company has demonstrated strong pricing power, robust cost discipline, and impressive margin expansion. The completion of key capital projects, such as the 25-kilogram bagging project, enhances its market positioning and operational efficiency. With a strengthened balance sheet supported by a US$60 million corporate bond issuance and low leverage, Loma Negra offers a compelling vehicle to play the Argentine economic turnaround.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$13.00

Mean target$14.30

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent hyperinflation, political gridlock, and failure to implement structural economic reforms lead to a prolonged recession in Argentina. Construction activity contracts further, and intense pricing competition in concrete and aggregates segments squeezes margins, keeping EBITDA margins below 20%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The Argentine economy undergoes a gradual stabilization, driving a recovery in private construction and public infrastructure projects. Loma Negra maintains its dominant market share (~45%) and achieves high single-digit volume growth in FY2026. Operational efficiencies and stable energy costs support an Adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Undisputed market leadership in the Argentine cement industry with over 90 years of track record.
Highly efficient production asset base, particularly the state-of-the-art L'Amalí plant, which keeps production costs low.
Strong balance sheet with low leverage (1.33x Net Debt/EBITDA) and extended debt maturity profile.
High operating leverage poised to deliver substantial earnings growth upon macroeconomic recovery.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to Argentina's volatile macroeconomic environment, hyperinflation, and currency fluctuations.
Dependence on cyclical construction and infrastructure spending.
Potential regulatory risks, including price controls or restrictive foreign exchange regulations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A severe escalation of political instability or reversal of market-friendly economic reforms in Argentina.
A sustained double-digit decline in national cement consumption over multiple quarters.
A significant increase in energy and thermal fuel costs that cannot be passed on to customers.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.