Lockheed Martin Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lockheed Martin Corp

LMTNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.41

Intrinsic Value $480.55median of 6 methods · middle span $462-$1,122based on filings through 28 Jun 2026

Market Price $505.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $116.7B

Enterprise Value $133.4B

Shares Outstanding 229.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lockheed Martin enters the second half of 2026 with record reported backlog, broad second-quarter growth, raised sales and cash-flow guidance, and unusually large multiyear missile-defense awards. These strengths are balanced by execution sensitivity on complex and fixed-price programs, government funding and definitization risk, the capital and integration requirements of the proposed Ultra Maritime acquisition. The resulting stance is neutral pending further evidence that the enlarged backlog converts into sustained cash flow without a recurrence of material reach-forward losses.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$503.00

Mean target$632.95

High · most bullish analyst$756.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$503.0020%

The bear case assumes production-ramp or supplier constraints delay backlog conversion, annual sales or free cash flow fall below guidance, or complex fixed-price programs generate renewed reach-forward losses. Funding changes affecting undefinitized multiyear awards or complications in closing and integrating Ultra Maritime would compound the downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$632.9555%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes 2026 sales and free cash flow remain within management's updated ranges, record backlog supports continued growth, and program execution remains materially better than in 2025.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$756.0025%

The bull case assumes that THAAD and PAC-3 multiyear awards translate into timely funded production, munitions capacity expands as planned, and broad segment growth carries sales and free cash flow toward or above the upper ends of 2026 guidance without significant new program charges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter orders of approximately $65 billion lifted reported backlog to a record $230.416 billion at June 28, 2026.
Missile-defense demand is supported by a seven-year THAAD award of up to $35 billion and a PAC-3 MSE multiyear contract whose announced total value reached $58.62 billion.
Management raised 2026 guidance to sales of $79.75-$81.75 billion and free cash flow of $7.0-$7.2 billion, while the board maintained a $3.45 quarterly dividend.

Key Investment Risks

Complex-program execution remains material: prior-year results included $1.615 billion of reach-forward losses across a classified Aeronautics program and two helicopter programs.
The large missile awards include undefinitized arrangements subject to funding, modification, schedule, supply-chain and production-scaling risks.
The proposed $3.45 billion Ultra Maritime acquisition introduces regulatory-closing, financing, integration, customer-relationship and personnel-retention risks.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.