Loar Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $38.28median of 4 methods · middle span $7-$69based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $61.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.8B Enterprise Value $6.6B Shares Outstanding 95.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Loar Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LOAR) is a high-moat, high-margin manufacturer of niche aerospace and defense components. The company's business model couples strong organic growth with a highly disciplined acquisition strategy, successfully integrating 18 acquisitions since 2012. With approximately 55% of net sales derived from high-margin aftermarket products and a proprietary portfolio supporting nearly every major aircraft platform, Loar is exceptionally positioned to benefit from sustained commercial aerospace demand and an aging global fleet. Recent Q1 2026 results demonstrate powerful operating leverage, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to a record 40.5%. Despite near-term headwinds in the defense segment due to ordering shifts, upward revisions to full-year 2026 guidance signal robust fundamental momentum. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$82.00 Mean target$89.80 High · most bullish analyst$107.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential integration bottlenecks with Harper Engineering, prolonged supply chain constraints at major commercial aerospace OEMs (e.g., Boeing, Airbus), and continued soft ordering patterns in the defense segment. Higher interest expenses on debt and non-cash acquisition charges could compress GAAP net income margins, leading to adjusted EPS falling below $1.15. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes continued strong demand in commercial OEM and aftermarket segments, successful integration of Harper Engineering and LMB, and a recovery in defense ordering patterns in the second half of 2026. Net sales are projected to meet the revised full-year guidance of $645 million to $655 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins holding steady at approximately 40% and adjusted EPS reaching $1.26 to $1.30. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |