LKQ Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $36.63median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$43based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 61% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.8B Enterprise Value $9.3B Shares Outstanding 254.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LKQ Corporation presents a compelling value opportunity following a significant share price decline of approximately 26% over the past year, driven by near-term margin compression, inflation, and lower vendor rebates. Despite these headwinds, the company's core revenue remains resilient, supported by its dominant position in the circular economy and alternative auto parts distribution. The ongoing formal strategic review initiated in January 2026 serves as a major catalyst, with potential divestitures of specialty operations or a business sale expected to unlock substantial shareholder value. At current deeply discounted multiples relative to historical averages and peers, the risk-reward profile is highly favorable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$32.50 High · most bullish analyst$42.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0020% Persistent inflationary pressures, rising auto insurance premiums, and deferred vehicle repairs lead to prolonged organic revenue declines in North America and Europe. The strategic review fails to yield meaningful transactions, and integration challenges or high debt levels limit financial flexibility, keeping valuation multiples depressed. Base CaseCentral scenario $32.5050% Matches the consensus meanLKQ successfully executes its 'Charting Our Future' strategy, achieving its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.90 to $3.20 and operating cash flow of $900 million to $1.1 billion. The company completes targeted asset divestitures to optimize its portfolio, stabilizes its North American and European margins through operational efficiencies, and gradually deleverages its balance sheet toward its target range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.5030% The strategic review results in a highly lucrative sale of the Specialty segment or the entire business to private equity or strategic buyers at premium multiples. Concurrently, rapid stabilization of European demand and successful cost-cutting initiatives drive EBITDA margin expansion back toward historical double-digit levels, while free cash flow generation accelerates to the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |