LiveWire Group Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers Beta (adjusted)1.44 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $318.4M Enterprise Value $342.3M Shares Outstanding 205M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) continues to lead the premium U.S. electric on-road motorcycle market, but it remains in a high-investment, loss-making phase. While Q1 2026 results demonstrated strong top-line growth (revenue up 86.5% YoY to $5.12 million) and narrowing operating losses, the company's financial viability is heavily reliant on its parent company, Harley-Davidson, and the successful scaling of lower-cost platforms like the S4 Honcho and newly acquired Dust Moto off-road assets. Given the slow consumer adoption of heavyweight electric motorcycles and persistent cash burn, a Hold recommendation is warranted until the company demonstrates a clear path to self-sustaining profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects persistent headwinds in the heavyweight EV motorcycle market, where high upfront costs and limited charging infrastructure continue to alienate traditional riders. If the S4 Honcho launch fails to gain traction and STACYC sales slow down, cash burn will accelerate, forcing dilutive capital raises under the $50 million ATM program or increasing related-party debt, dragging the stock down. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes LiveWire successfully launches the S4 Honcho mini-moto in 2026, driving higher unit volumes and improving manufacturing absorption. STACYC balance bikes continue to provide a stable baseline of volume, and the integration of Dust Moto assets opens up the growing electric off-road segment. Operating losses for FY 2026 are expected to remain within management's guided range of $70 million to $80 million, with Harley-Davidson providing continued backstop support. Bull CaseUpside scenario Rapid consumer adoption of the newly launched S4 Honcho mini-moto platform and successful integration of Dust Moto's off-road assets, driving significant volume scale, improving gross margins, and accelerating the timeline to positive adjusted EBITDA. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |