Live Ventures Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Live Ventures Inc

LIVENASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryHousehold Durables

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $7.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $22.8M

Enterprise Value $12.7M

Shares Outstanding 3.3M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date10 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Jul 2005

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Live Ventures Incorporated (NASDAQ: LIVE) operates as a diversified holding company with a strategic focus on value-oriented acquisitions of domestic middle-market companies. While the company has demonstrated a strong historical track record of growth and disciplined capital allocation, recent performance has been mixed. In its fiscal second quarter ended March 31, 2026, Live Ventures reported a 3.8% year-over-year decline in revenue to $102.9 million and a net loss of $2.4 million, heavily impacted by a $4.0 million non-cash goodwill impairment in its Steel Manufacturing segment and ongoing softness in the Retail-Flooring segment. Despite these challenges, the company successfully expanded its gross margin by 80 basis points to 33.6% and continues to implement innovative AI-driven logistics upgrades to drive long-term operational efficiencies. Given the current macroeconomic headwinds affecting its core flooring and steel segments, a Hold recommendation is advised until clear signs of operational stabilization and demand recovery emerge.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case assumes prolonged macroeconomic weakness, characterized by persistent high interest rates and a stagnant housing market that continues to depress the flooring segments. Further declines in industrial production could trigger additional non-cash goodwill impairments in the Steel Manufacturing segment. High leverage and debt service obligations could strain liquidity, limiting the company's ability to pursue new value-oriented acquisitions and leading to further downward pressure on the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that Live Ventures will successfully navigate the current housing market softness and industrial demand slowdown. The company's Retail-Entertainment segment (Vintage Stock) is expected to remain a resilient cash generator, while the Flooring Manufacturing and Steel Manufacturing segments stabilize. Operational efficiencies from AI-driven logistics upgrades at Flooring Liquidators are projected to gradually improve margins, offsetting near-term volume declines. Under this scenario, the company maintains positive Adjusted EBITDA and gradually recovers profitability as macroeconomic pressures ease.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Successful execution of the 'buy-build-hold' strategy, where newly acquired high-margin businesses like Central Steel Fabricators capitalize on secular tailwinds (e.g., AI and data center infrastructure expansion), while operational turnarounds in legacy segments (like Flooring Liquidators) restore profitability and drive consolidated EBITDA growth.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Diversified holding company model reduces reliance on any single industry vertical.
Proven ability to harness AI, robotics, and data analytics for productivity enhancements, such as the autonomous logistics upgrade at Flooring Liquidators.
Highly invested management team with a compensation structure closely aligned with long-term shareholder value.
Strong historical track record of value-oriented acquisitions in the domestic middle market.

Key Investment Risks

Significant exposure to cyclical industries, particularly housing and industrial manufacturing, which are sensitive to macroeconomic downturns.
Substantial debt burden and leverage, which could restrict financial flexibility during periods of operational underperformance.
Risk of further non-cash goodwill impairment charges if acquired businesses fail to meet projected cash flows.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Additional material goodwill impairment charges exceeding $5.0 million in any single fiscal year.
A sustained decline in consolidated quarterly revenue below $95.0 million.
Failure to maintain compliance with critical debt covenants or a significant reduction in total cash availability below $25.0 million.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.